From a macroeconomic perspective, Indonesia’s economy appears fairly stable. Economic growth is in the 5% range, and the government is targeting around 5.4% by 2026. However, behind these figures lies a different reality, particularly for the middle class.
This group has long been recognized as the main driver of national consumption. In fact, its contribution to household consumption exceeds 80%. This means that when the middle class is under pressure, the impact is felt not only by individuals but also on overall economic stability.
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The Shrinking Middle Class: More Than Just Numbers
Recent data indicates that the size of Indonesia’s middle class is declining. From approximately 47.9 million people in 2024, it has dropped to 46.7 million people in 2025. This decline of approximately 1.1 to 1.2 million people serves as a critical signal that a segment of the population is experiencing a decline in economic capacity.
More concerning is that the “aspiring middle class” group has actually increased significantly to around 142 million people. This indicates that an increasing number of people are in a vulnerable position, are not yet financially secure, and are at risk of falling into a lower socioeconomic class if additional economic pressures arise.
Proportionally, the middle class is also shrinking from 21.4% in 2019 to around 16.6% by 2025. This means the foundation of domestic consumption, which has long been relied upon, is beginning to weaken.
Weakening Purchasing Power and Spending Pressures
One of the biggest challenges is the weakening of purchasing power. Many in the middle class are now in a deficit situation, where expenses exceed income. This forces them to make significant changes to their lifestyle.
This phenomenon is also evident in shifts in financial behavior. Recent surveys show that the majority of the middle class now saves not for investment or expansion, but for emergencies. This reflects a sense of insecurity regarding future economic conditions.
Additionally, pressure comes from rising living costs, particularly in the education and healthcare sectors. Inflation in the education sector, for example, is recorded at over 1% annually, and even higher at certain levels. This further narrows the middle class’s financial breathing room.
Caught in the Middle: Not Poor, But Not Secure
The middle class often finds itself in a difficult position. They do not fall into the “poor” category and thus do not receive social assistance, yet they are not financially strong enough to withstand long-term economic pressures.
As many as 86 million people even fall into the “transitional middle class” category—a group that is economically vulnerable. This group is highly sensitive to price changes, job loss, or income reduction.
On the other hand, limited growth in formal employment also poses a challenge. Many new jobs created are in the informal sector with unstable incomes. This makes social mobility increasingly difficult.
Real Impact: From Consumption to Life Decisions
Economic pressures affect not only statistics but also daily life decisions. Many middle-class families are beginning to postpone home purchases, education, and even other essential needs.
Consumption has also become more cautious. People are cutting back on spending for secondary and tertiary needs, even adopting a simpler lifestyle. In the long term, this could slow economic growth as domestic consumption weakens.
Reflection: The Middle Class as a Pillar That Must Be Preserved
The middle class is not merely an economic group but also a pillar of social stability. They are the group that drives consumption, investment, and economic growth. When this group is under pressure, the impact will ripple across various sectors.
Therefore, it is crucial to view these challenges not only as economic issues but also as social issues requiring serious attention—whether from the perspective of policy, the economic ecosystem, or individual awareness in managing finances.
The economic challenges currently weighing on the middle class in Indonesia indicate that economic growth has not yet been fully equitable. On one hand, macroeconomic figures appear stable. On the other hand, many people remain in vulnerable positions.
Understanding this situation is crucial so that we do not view the economy solely through numbers but also through the realities faced by the people. Ultimately, a nation’s economic strength depends heavily on how resilient its middle class remains.